Or a sure thing? Today i purchased one Google put. My logic, or lack their of, was that they have been one of the annointed 4 horsemen of the market like apple, and given the beating apple took after they met numbers and lowered guidance i believe there is a reasonible chance Google is due for the same outcome when they report next week. It is also interesting that apple did get beaten up pretty bad before they reported, just like google is now.
Now given that buying or selling a stock right before they report numbers is more akin to gambling than trading i have bought only 1 lonely put option. But given that 1) we are in a bear market and as such bear rules apply, such as good news is bad news and bad news is horrible news; 2) Google is priced to perfection in terms of the expectations for growth and as such any lowering of the forcast will have a significant effect (see my earlier post about the PEG ratio); and 3) from a technical basis goog is breaking down and the rally yesterday looks like a great short entry because it rallied into the declining moving averages.
Check back next Friday for the results.
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