Exited the qqqq's

While i needed to go out of town and did not feel comfortable leaving my long qqqq positions on so i exited Friday of last week. We still appear to be in the same position as last week. We may be forming a double bottom on the nasdaq 100. We also may be forming a double bottom on the S & P 500 as well. In this case the double bottom would be distorted in that the second low did not make it all the way down to the first low. This is actually a position sign.

Before i rush out and buy a bunch of stuff i need to understand if this potential double bottom is different from the one put in on March of last year. One difference is that at that time the 50 day moving average was above the 200 day average. This is a more general bullish indicator for longer term institutional investors. Right now things are different in that the 50 is below the 200 and both a pointing down. Another differnce is that in March the market was in a consolidation period for 3 months before the double bottom formed. Right now we are clearly in a decline not a consolidation period.

My guess is that if the bottom forms we have limited upside potential. I keep trying to figure out what is the near term target we could expect. Getting to 13000 on the dow seems the furthest we could go at this time. What is the impetous to get to 14000 again? So for now i will sit out and watch. I do have a small gold position i am sitting on. It is starting to look like a symetrical triangle is forming. Although this will be smaller than the one that formed in Nov-Dec of last year, this sets up for a possible further rise. As always we don't know until the pattern completely forms and then breaks out. If it breaks lower then i'm out.
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